Use expected production as the first comparison
With fair dice, a 6 tile has five producing outcomes out of 36 and a 5 tile has four. Add those weights for the tiles beside each settlement. The result describes expected cards over 36 rolls if production is unblocked and the bank can pay. It does not promise that those numbers will arrive evenly.
Keep the resource totals separate. Five expected ore cards and five expected wood cards have the same quantity but help different builds. A total tells you how much output you might get; the breakdown helps you decide whether that output is usable without expensive exchanges.
Worked example: 21 broad cards or 23 specialised cards?
Consider a first settlement on 6 ore, 5 wheat and 9 sheep. Pair A adds 4 wood, 10 brick and 3 wheat. Across both settlements, the expected output is 21 cards per 36 fair rolls: five ore, six wheat, four sheep, three wood and three brick. All five resources are represented.
Pair B keeps the first settlement but adds 8 ore, 10 wheat and 11 sheep. Its total rises to 23: ten ore, seven wheat and six sheep. It has no direct wood or brick production. B may suit a city-and-card plan, but it needs a credible way to obtain expansion materials. A supplies fewer cards while leaving more builds directly available. These are illustrative tile bundles, not a claim that both pairs are legal on every board.
Distinguish number coverage from resource quantity
Two producing tiles on 6 pay together when 6 arrives. Moving one of them to 8 preserves its individual fair-dice expectation but spreads income across another outcome. The trade-off is bundled resources versus more opportunities to receive something. Neither arrangement makes a future 6 or 8 due.
Our second calculator preset holds expected output constant to expose that difference. Inspect the chance of any income separately from expected card count. A percentage labelled “income chance” describes one fair roll; it is not the probability of winning or completing a build on your next turn.
Return to the actual board before placing
Check that the corners are legal and still available. Then trace a realistic first expansion and notice who can reach it sooner. A productive starting pair with no practical route outward may need a different plan from an equally productive pair with open space.
Remember the resources supplied by your second settlement when planning the first few turns. A production calculator omits that initial hand, ports and opponent decisions. Use it to make the numerical comparison transparent, then explain the positional reason for your choice in a sentence. If that explanation relies on an uncertain trade, keep a fallback.
Sources and scope
- CATAN: game overview and playing tips
Official production and dice-probability reference. Its optional variants are not assumed here.
- CATAN base-game rules and almanac
Official rulebook index. Use the rulebook for your edition; the advice here covers the base game.